BloombergNEF projects 41% drop in clean energy deployment; onshore wind down 50% (July 18, 2025 )
July 18, 2025 — BloombergNEF (BNEF) revised its U.S. clean energy outlook sharply downward following the OBBBA's signing, projecting a 41 percent decline in clean energy deployment overall after 2027 relative to its prior forecast, with onshore wind facing a 50 percent reduction. The revised outlook expected 395 gigawatts of clean power built through 2030 compared to the 512 gigawatts previously expected — a loss of 117 gigawatts of generating capacity. Solar deployment was projected to fall 23 percent and energy storage by 7 percent over the same period.
Rhodium Group was similarly stark in its analysis, forecasting that the OBBBA's tax credit phaseouts would reduce new clean energy generating capacity by 53 to 59 percent over the following decade compared to projections under the IRA. In the same period, investments in U.S. renewables had already fallen 36 percent in the first half of 2025, per BNEF data, driven by the combination of funding freezes, tariffs, the wind moratorium, and policy uncertainty. Analysts noted the projected decline would also drive up consumer electricity prices, particularly in states without their own clean energy policies.
Developers raced to exploit the remaining window. To qualify for surviving tax credits, new wind and solar projects must begin construction by July 4, 2026 — creating a construction rush in the second half of 2025 as developers scrambled to secure equipment, lock in power purchase agreements, and break ground before the deadline. "The biggest effect of the Trump administration on clean energy has been to introduce massive chaos," said one professor of energy policy. The rush also concentrated demand in ways that strained supply chains already disrupted by tariffs.
| https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/18/the-rise-and-fall-of-clean-energy-deployment-following-obbb/ |